Just when it looked like the Indian economy was finally getting back on track, the entire nation had to go on a lockdown - an extraordinary move for a country of 1.3bn people, with a case-count of less than 500, and hardly any deaths.
Given the exponential spread, the government was likely correct in doing what it did. Cases were doubling every 3 days. Hospitals were wholly unprepared. Testing was close to nonexistent. Epidemiologists were predicting a 1,000-fold increase by end of April. In other words, 500,000 cases.
Instead, we have 28,000 so far. Growth rate has settled around 8% a day, with recoveries growing at the same pace. In fact, by all accounts total mortality in India has DECREASED. Car crashes, train accidents, homicides, have all come down meaningfully. We have the lockdown to thank for all that.
Notes & Letters
A collection of our thoughts, views, and excerpts from our investor letters.